Home > Uncategorized > New IAEA Report Shows Iran Approaching Israeli, Not U.S. Red Line

New IAEA Report Shows Iran Approaching Israeli, Not U.S. Red Line

September 2, 2012 Leave a comment Go to comments

A former U.S. official offers a very compelling analysis of why the United States and Israel seem to be experiencing more friction following the release (Aug. 30) of the new IAEA report (.pdf) on Iran. He offered to share his views on background:

To me, the most important/interesting aspects of the IAEA reportare the following facts:

1. Iran is massively expanding its capacity at Fordow (2,100 of 3,000 centrifuges installed).

2. They have not expanded the number of machines spinning to 20% and have converted a bunch of 20% to fuel for the [Tehran Research Reactor] TRR, meaning no net increase of material they can use to rapidly produce bomb-grade material.

This is a brilliant combo, since #1 moves Iran closer to the zone of immunity (giving them a greater capacity Israel can’t destroy), approaching an Israeli red line. But #2 self-consciouslyavoids approaching a U.S. red line.

[For Iran], the very difference between pushing up against Israel’s red line while staying far short of Washington’s is a win-win: it guarantees Israeli-U.S. friction in the near-term (whichwe are seeing); and, if Israel attacks, it tees Iran up to play the victim on the back end and break-out of their isolation. The upshot: they are daring the Israelis to attack in a context where the strike would be viewed as premature by the U.S. (and everybody else).

Laura Rozen

September 1, 2012

Related link –  http://tinyurl.com/9957goj

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