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The Man Who Broke the Middle East

June 23, 2014 Leave a comment

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The absence of any U.S. deterrent role to counter the violation of international norms and standards by the Iranian mullahs have given the Islamic regime the tranquility of living out its dream of regional hegemony and the ability to have its forces dominate Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. These countries are Arabic territories that over time have started to undergo the influence of Shiite regime in Iran. How was the Arab world, which constitutes the vast majority of regional Sunnis, supposed to react to all this? Of course they were not going to stay silent and as the war in Syria has shown, their Sunni extremists were fostered to get into the fight with the Shiite-supported regime of Assad. But then the war in the country started to expand as other groups of Islamic extremists from every corner of the world joined the clashes against the IRI proxies Hezbollah and the Shiite fundamentalists, turning the Syria into a bloodbath hell, which soon started to spill over into the neighboring countries. Early support for the Syrian genuine oppositions at the beginning of uprising could have prevented the current crisis and result in with not only the removal of Assad from power but establishment of a secular democratic government in the country.  

 There is no question that the current wide spread crisis in the Middle East has been the result of the Obama administration’s inaction policy in the region. The problem with U.S. wait-&-watch policy is that the sectarian war won’t wind up with one’s side victory over another but most probably the Sunni and Shiite extremists could compromise over who gain control of what territory after dividing the region into smaller areas, which will then become terrorist states. Such situations are already imminent developments in Syria and Iraq. Regardless, could such a scenario that violates every global norm and standard be acceptable to the West in particular United States? Could the humanity continue its normal operation alongside dangerous rouge states, whose spread to other areas of the world are just a matter of time? Unless the world has already accepted the start of a universal war, the answer would simply be a big NO.

 United States dependency on Middle East oil may have been reduced due to its looming prospect of energy self-sufficiency, yet for geopolitical purposes U.S. needs to keep its presence in the region. The question that we have to ask ourselves is that is it logical to assume that U.S. administration with so many intelligence offices from NSA to CIA along with its hundreds of think-tank centers all over the nation couldn’t initially predict the current Middle East situation in advance? It is naïve to presume that they really had no clue of what was going to happen in the region. On the contrary, the bitter truth is that the U.S. administration has had complete awareness of the situation in the region and actually knew what is going to happen in those territories and by choosing the inaction policy calculatedly let that to happen. Several determinative elements were in the Obama’s calculation to make such choice of strategy, among which, the lack of public support for another war, sequestration and its impact on defense budget resulting in military shortcomings, and the cast of his Nobel Peace Prize’s spell to hold him as a President of peace, are few to mention. However the sectarian war among Shiite and Sunni extremists has given Obama an incentive to stay inactive and make use of wait-&-watch policy and let them do the dirty job of plowing the region for him, which is a prerequisite for the new blueprint of the greater Middle East map per U.S. foreign policy. When the terrorist threat level gets red alert in the region the U.S. and perhaps NATO will ultimately intervene in the Middle East but for now they allow the evil forces of terrorists be engaged in purging one another. [DID]

There’s always Tunisia. Amid the smoking ruins of the Middle East, there is that one encouraging success story. But unfortunately for the Obama narratives, the president had about as much as to do with Tunisia’s turn toward democracy as he did with the World Cup rankings. Where administration policy has had an impact, the story is one of failure and danger.

The Middle East that Obama inherited in 2009 was largely at peace, for the surge in Iraq had beaten down the al Qaeda-linked groups. U.S. relations with traditional allies in the Gulf, Jordan, Israel and Egypt were very good. Iran was contained, its Revolutionary Guard forces at home. Today, terrorism has metastasized in Syria and Iraq, Jordan is at risk, the humanitarian toll is staggering, terrorist groups are growing fast and relations with U.S. allies are strained.

How did it happen? Begin with hubris: The new president told the world, in his Cairo speech in June 2009, that he had special expertise in understanding the entire world of Islam—knowledge “rooted in my own experience” because “I have known Islam on three continents before coming to the region where it was first revealed.” Read more…

A Symbol of Freedom that Never Dies

June 21, 2014 Leave a comment

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Friday (yesterday) was the 5th anniversary of Neda’s death.  On June 20, 2009, a regime’s thug fired a bullet through the 26-year-old’s heart as she stood watching protests against the blatant election fraud that had secured victory for a presidential candidate backed by regime’s leader, Ali Khamenei. Video of her dying moments went viral, and Neda became a global symbol of the upraised movement, as the Iranian people called their movement to topple a regime capable of such bloody deeds. 

The Islamic regime is scared to death of the name “NEDA”, which in Persian means “Voice”, a voice that inspires people to rise up and overthrow this criminal and terrorist Islamic regime once and for all and take their faith in their own hands. Yesterday the Islamic thuggish militia has blocked the way of the people who were on their way to cemetery to pay their respect to Neda. News indicates that some of the people were arrested.

Soon or later the time for the regime’s fall will come, on that day the world will witness that every single mullah will be hanged from one tree in Tehran. That is the least punishment for the hundreds of thousands of murders of Iranians by this barbarian regime. This regime is just like a cancer, to treat the cancer it is imperative to kill the tumor, that is why we have to remove the Islamic regime tumor from the body of the society, it would be a big-time favor not only for Iran and Iranians but for the global peace and security. [DID]

US-Iranian Mullahs Pact for Resolving the Iraqi Crisis, Really!?

June 18, 2014 Leave a comment

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All along DID editorial has asserted that Obama administration has been playing a conspiracy theory in the Middle East region, which has 3 acts, act one: balancing powers among sectarians, act two: engineering sectarian wars, and act three: redrawing the new blueprint for the region.

Act one, since Sunnis outnumber the Shiites in the region there has been a need to make a power balance between the Sunni groups and Shiite factions. US has been working toward the benefits of Iranian mullahs from the beginning of the IRI establishment. Over time US has allowed the apocalyptic mullahs to export their ideologies outside Iran border to make bases around the region such as its establishment in Lebanon, the terrorist group of Hezbollah. US invasion of Iraq and toppling Saddam Hussein was actually an initial strategy to boost the political power of the mullahs’ regime in the region. Then  endorsement of the Iranian mullahs’ puppet, Maliki, as the Iraqi PM in spite of the victory of Ayad Allawi’s predominantly Sunni alliance in 2010 Iraq’s national election, was part of the US administration efforts to broaden the regional power of the IRI regime. Then it was the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, which again was formulated to let the Shiite regime to dominate the region.

Act two, the conspiracy has been to manipulate sectarian war among Sunnis groups and Shiites factions. Syria crisis and more than 3 years of US inaction policy while giving the green light to the criminal Mullahs’ regime and its terrorist proxies to interfere in the Syrian civil war to help Assad stay in power, and on the other hand permitting the Islamic Sunni extremists join the battle and turn the country into a source provider of terrorism in the world, to the point of terrorists’ spill over into the neighboring countries such as Iraq, are all articulate the veracity of such insane intrigue theory. But above all this recent announcement of a US joint plan with mullahs’ regime to resolve the Iraqi crisis is just ludicrous. For more than a decade the Mullahs’ regime has been the mastermind behind the Maliki government’s policy of imposing sectarian discrimination in Iraq against the Sunnis sections, how US can expect this criminal regime to, all of a sudden, change its inimical conduct in dealing with Sunnis groups and play a positive role of mediation to resolve the crisis, whose blame goes to the regime itself. Isn’t it naïve to say that US does not know the IRI regime, this most threatening terrorist State in the world?  

Act three, so far we are around the end of the act 2. The last act of this theatrical play, redrawing the new blueprint for the Middle East, which requires for the whole region to be turned upside down, is yet to come. However Iraq would be among the first States to get its new divided look with new smaller territories under different names.  The play continues, your patience is advised. [DID]

Over the weekend, news broke that the United States is planning on discussing the growing chaos in Iraq with the government of Iran. Iran has already offered to send in its elite IRGC troops to help counter the Sunni al Qaeda offshoot, ISIS, that is spreading across Iraq with little resistance from Iraq’s own armed forces. Three points:

1. Iran’s own offer is a classic Tehran style operation, the analog of its behavior in Beirut in the 1980s, when Iranian proxies took dozens of hostages (including Americans) and Iran offered to help “negotiate” for their release. The regime of the Islamic Republic is in large part to blame for the chaos now engulfing the region. The people of Syria took to the streets to overthrow Iranian protégé Bashar el Assad. If Iran had simply stepped aside, a peaceful revolution might have taken place in Syria. Instead, Iranian troops, advisers, proxies and arms flowed into Syria, helping ignite the civil war that has claimed 160,000 lives. That war, and the Sunni extremists that joined the battle, were the spark that ignited the flames now sweeping Iraq. Of course, there are other circumstances, including Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki’s own political mistakes, as well as Barack Obama’s decision to ignore growing turmoil in the region, but Iran has played no small part in the tragedies now unfolding. Read more…

Major Wars Create Economic Growth

June 16, 2014 Leave a comment

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This article claims that war is the mother of fundamental innovation and invention, creates jobs, put people to work, and produce an increase in the GDP growth of a nation. However it does not talk about some of the hidden truth behind these wars, the fact that Arms cartels and the capitalists are mostly those who financially benefited from major wars, which results in a bigger gap of inequality in the society. The fact that the main prime mover of most of the wars has root in hegemonic intentions, the cities and towns are destroyed and then foreign contractors and workers come to rebuild them. In other word, the boost in economy of a nation is achieved upon the misery of the other. The article has also undermined the loss of lives during major wars. Nonetheless this article can be the indication of an alarming sign  for the coming war that soon will explode the bubble of global peace. [DID]

The continuing slowness of economic growth in high-income economies has prompted soul-searching among economists. They have looked to weak demand, rising inequality, Chinese competition, over-regulation, inadequate infrastructure and an exhaustion of new technological ideas as possible culprits.

An additional explanation of slow growth is now receiving attention, however. It is the persistence and expectation of peace.

The world just hasn’t had that much warfare lately, at least not by historical standards. Some of the recent headlines about Iraq or South Sudan make our world sound like a very bloody place, but today’s casualties pale in light of the tens of millions of people killed in the two world wars in the first half of the 20th century. Even the Vietnam War had many more deaths than any recent war involving an affluent country. Read more…

Barack Obama and Iraq – Cool Calculations

June 15, 2014 Leave a comment

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The bloodbath in Syria initially began with peaceful protests at the end of January 2011. U.S. could have acted to shape the Syrian opposition into an effective force to prevail. Direct intervention then was neither necessary nor desirable. The cost of assisting Assad’s opponents with logistic and strategic support at the beginning would have been minimal compare to the accumulating cost of American inaction. Obama’s foreign policy of leading from behind meant nothing more than leaving behind the desperate Syrian people in the middle of an unequal fight, making them to turn elsewhere for help and wind up beholden to and manipulated by many adversary groups and States to U.S.

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As a result today we witness the ISIS terrorist group in Syria is spilling over into Iraq, turning the country into a civil war. That has been the result of Obama’s “Watch and Wait” policy. The scenario is repeating again but this time in Iraq, once more we hear the same old stuff from White House and the administration that US will not interfere in Iraq but provide humanitarian assistance for the refugees and displaced people and perhaps delivering some material support. What would be the result? Iranian mullahs will send their terrorist IRGC militias into Iraq to get into the fight against the ISIS group and safeguard the security of the Shiite Shrines. Soon the war in Iraq will escalate and spill over into the neighboring countries that can easily develop into a regional war.

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One way to see how all this has happened is to blame the inaction policy of the West led by US, but I personally don’t see it that way. I don’t think that the West is that naive to shoot itself in the foot; I believe this has been the result of a carefully plotted master plan by the West to make the regional adversary groups and States to unknowingly do their dirty job of plowing the region by manipulating and engineering sectarian conflicts among them, Sunni blocs against the Shiite factions. The prerequisite for implementing the blueprint for redrawing the new borderlines in Middle East requires chaos and anarchy in the territory, collapsed civilizations, and fallen States, and that is exactly where the region is heading to. [DID]

AVOIDING aggressive questions is a hallmark of the White House press corps. So it should be no surprise that reporters watching President Barack Obama make an emergency statement on Iraq on June 13th  failed to pelt him with the queries that lurk at the center of the debate over America’s role in the Middle East. Namely: Mr President, did you help to bring these horrors about when you rushed to pull American combat troops out of Iraq as quickly as possible? And, Mr President, does any part of you regret ignoring pleas to arm and train non-extreme opposition forces across the border in Syria over the past two years?

Instead reporters allowed Mr Obama to explain why American involvement in Iraq would be limited, would take “several days” to be sent, would not involve any return of ground troops and was conditional on Iraq’s central government coming up with a “sincere” political plan to resolve sectarian divisions. “We can’t do it for them,” Mr Obama said severely.

“Nobody has an interest in seeing terrorists gain a foothold inside of Iraq and nobody is going to benefit from seeing Iraq descend into chaos. The United States will do our part,” he added. “But understand that ultimately it’s up to the Iraqis, as a sovereign nation, to solve their problems.” Read more…

Iranian Mullahs Deploys Forces to Fight al Qaeda-Inspired Militants in Iraq

June 13, 2014 Leave a comment

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The DID commentary on the articlethe Terrorist IRI Regime Becomes an Ally of US to Fight Against Al-Qaeda, dated January 07, 2014 made a mockery of the scenario, in which Iranian Mullahs find themselves very much aligned with Washington to fight against Al-Qaeda, here are the script:

You may laugh it out loud because it is more like a joke, but it is not!

It wasn’t too far back that US State Department has described Iran as an “active State sponsor of terrorism”. In fact United States has Listed Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization and has penalized most of its leaders. But now that the United States has become embarrassed internationally due to its confounded Mideast foreign policy run by an incapable and inefficient President and its administration, the Iranian theocratic terrorist regime becomes a cooperative friend in the region that can help U.S. to fight Al Qaeda!!

 Why not? Before, the IRI terrorists has helped U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan to convert those countries into war zones as the world has witnessed. The exit of US forces from Iraq was actually a boost for the IRGC to spread turmoil in the area, then it came the inaction of US on Syrian crisis for almost 3 years, another boost for the IRGC to turn the region upside down. And now the apocalyptic Mullahs are getting prepared to launch the sectarian war that US has impatiently been waiting for. Be ready for the U.S.-made Armageddon in the Middle East, to be played by its puppets, the IRI and the Al-Qaeda!! GO FIGURE. [DID]

The Obama administration is presumably to step up shipments of material support to Iraq. Iranian mullahs on the other hand are sending their IRGC terrorist militias to Iraq to get into the fight with ISIS groups, to safeguard the Shiite shrines.  Now seems like all the ingredients are prepared for the ridiculous fantasy to become a reality. Soon the puppets Apocalyptic Iranian Mullahs, close-to-be-fallen Nouri Al Maliki, and the doom-laden ISIS, under the control of the puppeteer Uncle Sam, will turn Iran, Iraq, and the region into a Syria-like ruins. [DID]

BEIRUT—The threat of Sunni extremists eclipsing the power of its Shiite-dominated Arab ally presents Iran with the biggest security and strategic challenge it has faced since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

With the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, an offshoot of al Qaeda, rapidly gaining territory, Iran deployed Revolutionary Guards units to Iraq, according to Iranian security officials.

Iran has invested considerable financial, political and military resources over the past decade to ensure Iraq emerged from U.S. war as a strategic partner for the Islamic Republic and a strong Shiite-led state. The so-called Shiite crescent—stretching from Iran to Iraq, Lebanon and Syria—was forged largely as a result of this effort.

Two Guards’ units, dispatched from Iran’s western border provinces on Wednesday, were tasked with protecting Baghdad and the holy Shiite cities of Karbala and Najaf, these security sources said. Read more…

How ISIS Leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi Became the World’s Most Powerful Jihadist Leader

June 11, 2014 Leave a comment
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A convoy of vehicles and fighters from the al-Qaeda affiliates Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)

Every day you get up and hear about a new Islamic terrorist organization that takes responsibility for some act of terrorism in some part of the Middle East and/or North Africa. Who are these terrorist groups that grow on soil like mushrooms? They are heavily armed, wearing bulletproof vests, masked and dressed in black. The funny thing is that they are Sunni Muslims and kill other Muslims who are Shia. The funnier thing is that the world governments and the United Nations are watching all these chaos in the region and keep silent, they couldn’t care less. Why?

The least they could do is to interrupt the lines of arms and material supports to these terrorist groups. But no, not only they don’t do that; they allow these fanatic groups get all the kind of assistance they need, in other word they indirectly support them. But the irony is that their supports are used to boost both fronts of the Islamic terrorism who are in fight against each other, the Shia faction and the Sunni party. United States provides financial supports for the IRI regime in Tehran and subsequently Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Nouri Al-Maliki’s government in Iraq, whom both are Shia Muslims and use these funds to fight against the Sunni people. On the other hand U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, per U.S. administration recommendation, provide the material and training support to Islamic rebels in Syria and Jordan, who are Sunni groups such as Al-Qaeda and its affiliate ISIS that are in fight with Shia people and their allies in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.

But what the world powers and mainly U.S. have in mind behind all this? We know that U.S., regardless of looming prospect of energy self-sufficiency, still for geopolitical purposes needs to keep its presence in the region. However U.S. due to lack of public support cannot make use of military force and prefers to take advantage of the ongoing chaos in the region and have these Islamic terrorists plow the whole region and create the fertile soil for radicals, to the point of regional governments wearying and breakdown. Iraq and Iran would be among the last states in the region that would collapse since from the world powers’ point of view their presence is necessary for the completion of the task on hand. It would be at that point of time for the U.S. and NATO to intervene, which will add a new momentum to the conflict and turn it into a beyond-regional war with new actors but no clear prospect for its ending. Will the U.S. succeed to implement its  blueprint for the new Middle East map? It is a question that only future can tell us. [DID]

For all his power and new found notoriety, there are only two authenticated photos of a man now called the world’s “most powerful jihadi leader.”One shows a serious man with an olive complexion and rounded countenance. The other, released by the Iraqi government in January, depicts an unsmiling bearded figure in a black suit. The image is cracked and blurry, as though someone had taken a picture of a picture.

The murkiness of the photo of the man who calls himself Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is appropriate. Though he’s “the world’s most dangerous man” to Time magazine and the “the new bin Laden” to Le Monde, the man who orchestrated the sacking of northern Iraq’s largest city and today has control of a nation-size swath of land, is a relatively unknown and enigmatic figure.  Read more…

Angelina Jolie, British Foreign Secretary Open Sexual-Violence Summit

June 10, 2014 Leave a comment
oys lives and damages communities. ... Global Summit to End Sexual Violence in Conflict

Angelina Jolie and Britain’s Foreign Secretary William Hague arrive at the Global Summit to End Sexual Violence in Conflict at the Excel Centre in London on June 10, 2014.

Superstar Angelina Jolie has received wide recognition for her humanitarian work. In 2001 on her motives for joining UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees)  she said: “We cannot close ourselves off to information and ignore the fact that millions of people are out there suffering. I honestly want to help. I don’t believe I feel differently from other people. I think we all want justice and equality, a chance for a life with meaning. All of us would like to believe that if we were in a bad situation someone would help us.”  

A global humanitarian figure and a genuine humble human being who renders her pure services to mankind with no expectancy for any kind of incentive, a real role-model for Iranian artists and entertainers. You Go Angelina.  [DID]

The conference to address sexual crimes in conflict zones is the largest meeting on the issue in history.

Angelina Jolie has earned herself quite a list of titles over the years: Academy Award winner, Hollywood’s highest-paid actress, advocate for breast-cancer prevention. These days, though, she’s first and foremost a global humanitarian figure, and seemingly a pretty good one at that.

On Tuesday, she and British Foreign Secretary William Hague open a four-day summit in London to address the epidemic of sexual violence in warring regions across the world. AFP reports that it’s the largest meeting ever to be held on the issue, with representatives from over 100 countries traveling to the U.K., including U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. Read more…

Obama Administration Funded Terror Network ‘for the next ten years’

June 9, 2014 Leave a comment

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US have a history of creating and supporting terrorists logistically and strategically around the world, which initially started with Ben Laden and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and the Khomeini’s regime in Iran. The rouge state of Iran has recently benefited financially by the sanction relief through the interim agreement with U.S., they have been using the money to strengthen their bases in Syria, which has helped Assad to not only stay in power but to claim as the head of the State in Syria for the next 7 years. On the other hand U.S., after more than 3 years inaction and abandoning the genuine oppositions at the beginning of the Syrian uprising, have started providing material support for the allegedly Syrian rebels. However the long-due support for the Syrian oppositions has bought time for the Iranian mullahs’ terrorists, Al-Qaeda groups, and Islamist terrorists of almost all kinds to get the chance to merge into the conflict.

Saudi Arabia on the other hand while rebuking the America’s mideast policy decides boosting support for the Sunnis rebels fighting in Syria and of course U.S. doesn’t mind that. To let the sectarian conflict escalate and turn it into a regional war, U.S. gives American missiles to Iraq’s President, to let its Shiite-dominated forces to use them and kill Iranian mullahs’ Sunni enemies. Now there is a strong speculation that U.S. has paid cash ransom to Haqqani terrorist network operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan to get the group to free the American POW.

U.S. hegemonic strategy in the Middle East has been changed; due to the economic hardship and lack of public support it does not make use of force any longer, instead it operates on undertaking secret manipulation, colluding, and bribing among different sectional and religious fanatics in the region to turn and agitate the ongoing sectarian conflict into a regional war. In the coming months the world will witnesses an upside-down Middle East that would have inevitable drastic consequences on the global security and peace. [DID]

Reported details of the high-profile prisoner swap that freed Bowe Bergdahl over the weekend are not telling the full story, according to a high-level intelligence official involved in efforts to find and rescue the Army sergeant.

The Haqqani Network, a terrorist group operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan, freed Bergdahl on Saturday after holding him captive for five years in exchange for the release of five Guantanamo Bay prison inmates.

A senior intelligence official with intimate knowledge of the years-long effort to locate and rescue Bergdahl told the Washington Free Beacon that the details of that exchange do not add up.

The official, who requested anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press, speculated that a cash ransom was paid to the Haqqani Network to get the group to free the prisoner. Read more…

“Happy” Song – Miss USA 2014 Contestants Version

June 9, 2014 Leave a comment

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After the fall of the apocalyptic Islamic regime, which with a bit of luck  is not that far, Iran will someday be able to catch up with the world and run its own Miss Iran.

Iranian Mullahs’ Regime: False Assumptions

June 8, 2014 Leave a comment

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The Obama’s West Point foreign policy confirmed in the end what Iranian mullahs suspected all along that the President was bluffing when he repeatedly stated that all options are on the table to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. In his West Point speech by basing his foreign policy doctrine on his personal aversion to military solution he assured the mullahs that his military threats against them have never been credible. Moreover, Obama’s desperate concessions to get the mullahs engaged in the negotiations has given them the impression of having the privilege to achieve their irreversible goal of acquiring a nuclear-armed capability without paying a price as long as they are making the West believe they are truly negotiating.

Obama’s abjection and lack of capability in making the right, bold, and punctual decision in global affairs will be a serious threat to U.S. national security. It is imperative for the U.S. Congress to work closely with the administration on Iran agreement and pursue a direct and constant monitoring of the situation, otherwise the White House and the Congress will be held accountable for a nuclear-armed Iran and the subsequent global chaotic consequences. [DID]

The U.S. already failed to detect nuclear programs on four other occasions: Iraq – 1991, Syria – 2009, North Korea – 2000-1 and Libya – 2005. That is quite a record.

Terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, regularly launch rocket attacks on Israel, but because they are not “recognized state actors” launching rocket attacks on another sovereign state, we do not put the min the same category. All terrorist groups attacking a state therefore get a free pass.

A nuclear device in the hands of such terrorist groups — chosen precisely because they cannot be readily identified as working for, or connected to, a state — can therefore be used in an attack with impunity, totally undermining the assumption that such weapons in the hands of Iran are “only for deterrence.”

Unless we end the Iranian nuclear weapons program now, we will probably only know if a threat is “real” after it is too late.

Read more…

Atomic Amnesia: The Forgotten Military Aspects of Iranian Mullahs’ Nuclear Program

June 7, 2014 Leave a comment

 

pix2_060214Enriching uranium or producing plutonium is an industrial project; it requires thousands of centrifuges, as well as reactors. This phase can be easily detected by intelligence agencies or the IAEA. But the next phase, assembling the enriched materials into a bomb – building the actual warhead – can be done in a very small space, inside a single room and is almost impossible to detect. Final piece of the nuclear-armed puzzle is fitting a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile. Iranian mullahs reportedly have already tested missiles with 2,000 – 2,200 kilometer range, which could easily reach the regional states and perhaps portions of southeastern Europe. However the mullahs’ military activities can be considered as a serious global threat if and only if it combines with its nuclear program.

Because manufacturing of the warhead (2nd phase) is undetectable, the red line must be drawn at the enrichment phase, not the final assembly of the nuclear weapon. This means that any final agreement between the West and the Iranian mullahs should include the total suspension of the mullahs’ uranium enrichment program and their heavy-water reactor, as was centrally demanded by the UN Security Council Resolution dated August 2012.This not only requires the regime to discontinue any future addition to their centrifuges but involves the destruction of more than 20,000 existing centrifuges. Only then it would be safe to say that the apocalyptic mullahs’ nuclear threat to Middle East and the world has been curbed. [DID]

With most analysis of the Iranian nuclear program focused on its uranium-enrichment capabilities and the possible plutonium route to a nuclear device, the purely military aspects of Iran’s activities have been relegated to the sidelines. Indeed, as the nuclear negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran move toward the July 20 deadline, it is still not clear whether the international negotiators will insist upon including the suspected military aspects of Iran’s nuclear program in the framework of a final comprehensive deal. When we consider the relationship between the decade-long IAEA investigation into the military aspects of Iran’s program, and the recent round of negotiations led by the P5+1, it should be clear that IAEA findings must feed into P5+1 negotiations. But, the current situation—in which the IAEA is waiting for some Iranian answers until the end of August, but the deadline for the talks is July 20—does not auger well for the inclusion of the military aspects in a comprehensive deal.

In fact, the military aspects of Iran’s program are of critical importance to negotiations with Iran, and should be regarded as a deal-breaker if not included in any proposal for a final deal. Read more…