As we get closer to the end of the 2016 primary presidential election, I am more convinced that my prognosis about the outcome of this epic, which I made on March 25th, can turn out into a reality. The direction of the 2016 presidential election has been engineered in a bipartisan context, using all the resources at their disposal from GOP and DNC elites to super pacs and super delegates to core members of insiders and outsiders, to stop-Trump movement (!), to public figures and left-to-right mainstream Medias, in order to make sure that Donald Trump would be the GOP nominee. That may be the bad part, but the worse starts when you find out that the intention behind this marathon is not for Trump to be the U.S. President, and the only reason for paving the path for him to be the GOP nominee is to make sure that the Democratic nominee will get to be the next U.S. president, how so? Well according to all kind of polls the GOP nominee Donald Trump will lose the national presidential election to any democratic nominee by 2-digit points (by an average of 15%), these polls have consistently been (±3 error) precise. The underlying rationale behind such poll result, at the very least, is the lack of support of two groups of voters for Trump, the Latinos and women, and also the Clinton’s popularity factor among black voters.
So, why the U.S. political stage is getting prepared for at least another four years of democratic presidency? Well the answer is embedded in U.S. overall domestic and foreign policy change, since Obama has taken over the White House. Health care reform, climate change agreement, clean energy pact, planned parenthood policy, free college education, income inequality policy, gun control order, drone war policy & special operation versus boots on the ground, investment in myriad public services, immigration reform act, Cuba policy change, and Iran’s nuclear agreement are some of the policies that has been initiated during Obama’s presidency however not fully executed.
The cost of changing these policies is humongous and beyond the current capacity of U.S. treasury, which already is under about 20 trillion dollars deficit. It is interesting to mention that most of these policies are relatively in parallel to the cohesive order carried out by European socialist states, which raise the question: has United States already started changing its political/social track? If so, then those policies necessitate growing deep and get rooted in the mainframe of the American society for reshaping the way people live, which requires the continuation of at least another 4 years of Obama legacy. Thus America would soon be witnessing the germination of the giant seed of the social democrats, and accordingly the melt down of the current republican political structure for good.
P.S.: This prognostication can still be valid in case some other candidate rather than Donald Trump, like Tom Cruz, happened to be the GOP nominee through contested convention. Remember the polls shows that the democratic presidential candidate senator Bernie Sanders can easily defeat every republican candidate by a significant margin, which justifies why Sanders tends to continue staying in the race to the end of the primaries in spite of the fact that Hillary Clinton is about 800 delegates (including about 500 super delegates) ahead of him, and needs only 218 more delegates to win the nomination. This could be nothing more than a last minute strategy adjustment for the democratic party (i.e., super delegates are unbound by the voters and can switch their votes anytime they like).[DID]
Donald Trump gave his much-anticipated foreign policy speech at an event hosted by the Center for the National Interest today. It was contradictory in parts and repeated standard Republican criticisms of President Obama, but there was a clear message that is consistent with what Trump has said before. It was not the shift in substance that some predicted. There were several notable takeaways, most of which confirmed what we already knew.
- Trump will end U.S. alliances in Europe and Asia
Trump was more specific than usual about his beef with America’s allies. He said,
“We have spent trillions of dollars over time—on planes, missiles, ships, equipment—building up our military to provide a strong defense for Europe and Asia. The countries we are defending must pay for the cost of this defense—and, if not, the U.S. must be prepared to let these countries defend themselves.”
Trump is not asking them just to increase their defense budgets to 2 percent of GDP (a long-standing U.S. claim), nor is he asking them to pay a greater share of overseas bases. Read more…
My concern about Donald Trump being as the GOP nominee is fourfold, first it is with his trustworthiness, he blasts companies like Ford and Apple for manufacturing products outside the United States. He even threatened to stop eating Oreo cookies after he learned some production was moving to Mexico. But Trump does the same thing, his signature men’s dress shirts and ties are made in China, Bangladesh or “imported,” meaning they were made abroad. The Trump university lawsuit shows another trouble-example with his credibility, a hearing has already been schedule by the Judge in July 18, 2016. In the filing, the Trump University is accused of “persistent fraudulent, illegal and deceptive conduct,” false advertising, “operating an unlicensed private school,” refusing to provide mandated refunds, and other misdeeds.
Second, Donald Trump and the religious right are an unexpected match and his nomination could change the core trend of the republican party for good, a catalyst to loosen the stiffness of the establishment, which GOP may be in need of after all.
Third, trump’s ambitious presidential bucket list, such as rejecting NATO alliance may sound a bit naïve, an indication of lack of understanding of global order that has governed the world since the end of World War II to deter interstate conflict and thus maintaining global stability. Furthermore Trump’s primary objective in foreign policy is to extract cash from allies, he decries that the U.S. is protecting Saudi Arabia and not being properly reimbursed for every penny that is spent. He doesn’t see these alliances and commitments as security guarantees against global threats but fancy sorts of business deals. . As such, a Donald Trump president can make business deals with rogue states such as the theocratic regime of Iran and its terrorist mullahs, to him even human rights can be compromised and negotiated as long as the outcome is economically profitable.
And forth, the delegate math predicts that Trump will probably fall 50 to 100 pledged delegates short of the required 1237, however in the first ballot of convention in July 18-21 he may be able to compensate the shortage by convincing the super delegates to vote for him and become the GOP nominee. Regardless, by all kind of polls it has become evident that Trump as GOP nominee will lose national presidential election to Democratic nominee, either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. [DID]
President Barack Obama is trying but failing to reassure foreign leaders convinced that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. They’re in full-boil panic.
According to more than two dozen U.S. and foreign-government officials, Trump has become the starting point for what feels like every government-to-government interaction. In meetings, private dinners and phone calls, world leaders are urgently seeking explanations from Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry, Defense Secretary Ash Carter and Trade Representative Michael Froman on down. American ambassadors are asking for guidance from Washington about what they’re supposed to say.
“They’re scared and they’re trying to understand how real this is,” said one American official in touch with foreign leaders. “They all ask. They follow our politics with excruciating detail. They ask: ‘What is this Trump phenomenon? Can he really win? What would it mean for U.S. policy going forward or U.S. engagement in the world?’ They’re all sort of incredulous.” Read more…
Year after year U.S. State Department has issued its Human Rights report on Islamic regime of mullahs in Iran, in which every time a list of violations of personal and civil liberties, arbitrary arrest and detentions, tortures, disappearances, executions, discrimination, corruption and lack of transparency in government, etc, is enumerated. These reports are then transmitted to the U.S. Congress. One may ask whether these reports have had any upbeat effect on the regime’s code of conduct during the last almost four decades since the mullahs came to power in 1979! The answer is a big NO, there hasn’t been any positive change in the human rights record of the regime, quite the contrary the regime has become more violent in cracking down on its people. These reports are nothing more than bunch of rhetoric condemnation, which are easily ignored by the mullahs.
At best, the Congress initiates sets of sanctions against the IRI regime, however the records has shown that those sanctions have always been ineffective to stop mullahs from committing atrocities against its own people. The reason is transparent, the assigned sanctions are not of the smart type sanctions, smart sanctions are of political type that directly targets the main top leaders of the regime, bound by land, air, and water. In fact the U.S. sanctions against the regime are implied not to be smart because the West puppeteers are not willing to get rid of their puppets, the mullahs. The mullahs facilitate the World Powers’ plunder of Iran’s and Middle East’s natural wealth, promote the West’s economics through arm sales, and above all the apocalyptic regime will allow the West to use them as the wrecking ball to demolish the region by engaging in sectarian war. So why should the World Powers be willing to get rid of the mullahs?! Every year they release such a rhetoric condemnation report to fool the public but behind the curtain they express their commendation for such a rogue state, that is how the inhumane regime of IRI has survived for about 4 decades. [DID]
The Islamic Republic of Iran is a theocratic republic with a Shia Islamic political system based on “velayat-e faqih” (“guardianship of the jurist” or “rule by the jurisprudent”). Shia clergy, most notably the “supreme jurisprudent” (or supreme leader), and political leaders vetted by the clergy dominated key power structures. While mechanisms for popular election existed within the structure of the state, the supreme leader held significant influence over the legislative and executive branches of government (through various unelected councils under his authority) and held constitutional authority over the judiciary, the government-run media, and the armed forces. The supreme leader also indirectly controlled the internal security forces and other key institutions. Since 1989 the supreme leader has been Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In 2013 voters elected Hassan Rouhani president. Despite high popular participation following open debates, candidate vetting by unelected bodies based on arbitrary criteria and restrictions on the media limited the freedom and fairness of the election. In the last parliamentary elections in 2012, the government controlled candidate vetting and media reporting. Civilian authorities maintained effective control over the security forces. Read more…
There is a saying in Persian that if you want to hear the truth hear it from a kid since kids will always tell you the truth. To some people Donald Trump has a second-grader mentality, and so he can tell the truth. In his recent speech among his follower, he refers to the Super Delegates’ favors for Hillary Clinton regardless of Bernie Sander’s consistent winnings. He also claims that in spite of his own high popular votes in republican side he has not received enough delegates, and concludes that “THE SYSTEM IS CORRUPT”.
Bernie Sanders won the Caucus in the state of Wyoming, however it turned out that Hillary got the same number of delegates in that state as Sanders did, why? The answer is easy, SUPER DELEGATES are not bound by the voters, they don’t give a damn about the people’s vote, they are free to vote for any candidate they like, and of course they like Hillary very much, they along with SUPER PACS (the lobbyists for billionaires) are running a fixed election for Hillary Clinton to be the next US President. Money’s vote are much louder than of people’s vote. So much about the democracy in a democratic country like USA, GO FIGURE! [DID]
Over more than three-and-a-half decades, six U.S. presidents, under nine terms of presidency, one after another have been the bystanders to the crimes of the Mullahs’ regime against its own people, its active sponsorship of terrorism abroad, and its regional hegemonic role, and in turn have done nothing to confront and stop the evil act of such rogue state, Nothing! Zilch! Zero! On the contrary, they have cowardly sided with this evil. At some point one may think that the lack of bothered leaders by their conscience has sapped the will of governments in responding to these unprecedented acts of atrocity against humanity, but that cannot be the case, six presidents and all were inept leaders? No, that is not it.
The fact of the matter is that U.S. have been pursuing the long-standing policy of using the terrorist state (IRI) and non-state (ISIS, Al-Qaeda, etc) as wrecking balls to demolish the Middle East infrastructure by creating the sectarian war among Sunnis and Shia faction. United States along with its European allies not only do not confront the terrorism but directly and indirectly provide it with all the necessary vital economic and strategic instruments to keep it alive and active in its role of destroying the regional civility.
Such bulldozing will force the migration of local intellectual and patriotic societies to outside the regional borders; make the territory ready for non-resistant and easy plundering of its natural wealth by the greedy World Powers. By the same token, the fearful demolishing war is also used as a scarecrow for the neighboring states to benefit the World Powers by ordering humongous number of arms sales under the pretext of defense, thus providing a vehicle to promote their economy. The destruction of the region will continue until at some point the world community (i.e., UN) is forced to step in and present a plan to divide the territory into smaller states by imposing new borderlines. The new landscape of the Middle East map will of course preserve the geopolitical interests of the World Powers. The funny thing is that at the end of this chaos, which probably take a decade or two, these Great Powers will come back for reconstruction of the ruins of war, another way of economical scam.
Imperialism changes its version of presence but never fades away as long as there is no sincere resolute to end it. It becomes maleficent when combined with unfettered capitalism, turns a blind eye on humanity and ruins everything on its way to develop into an inhumane machine. [DID]
The barbaric terrorist attacks in Brussels were a clear reminder of the growing threat of Islamic extremism. This vicious ideology continues to take new forms – once al-Qaeda, now ISIS, both with the shared goal of creating an “Islamic state” capable of enforcing Sharia law and undermining the achievements of the civilized world.
While the Sunni version of fundamentalism desperately seeks to achieve this objective, the Shiite version in Tehran has been in place for nearly four decades. It should be confronted, not appeased.
Syria, Iraq, and Yemen have become breeding grounds for ISIS, a blessing in disguise for Tehran because it conveniently justifies the mullahs’ extraterritorial maleficence.
Some in the West continue to pin their hopes on elusive “reforms” within the clerical establishment, despite the fact that the Iranian regime’s regional agenda is, in the words of its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, “diametrically opposed” to that of the international community. Their optimism is fueled by the misguided expectation of political reform in the aftermath of the nuclear deal. Neither the facts nor the evidence support this contention. Read more…